The thing about modern warfare is that it’s not really about tanks and fighter jets anymore. Well, it is – but increasingly, it’s about who controls the invisible stuff. The electromagnetic spectrum. GPS signals. Communications networks. And lately, satellite internet.

China just ran a simulation that should worry anyone who’s been following the whole Starlink phenomenon. They tested whether they could effectively block SpaceX’s satellite internet service over Taiwan using a swarm of around 2,000 drones equipped with jamming devices. Not destroy the satellites themselves – that’s messy and creates debris. Just create what they’re calling an “electromagnetic shield” that would make those satellites useless for anyone below.

And here’s the kicker: according to the simulation, it might actually work.

How You Block Something That’s Not Really Blockable

Starlink is basically designed to be un-jammable. Or at least, really hard to jam. That’s kind of the whole point – Elon Musk has been pretty vocal about how the system uses frequency hopping and other fancy techniques to resist interference. Ukraine’s been using it throughout the war with Russia, and it’s proven surprisingly resilient even when Russia’s thrown some serious electronic warfare capabilities at it.

So how do you counter something like that? Well, you don’t try to out-tech the tech. You just… overwhelm it.

The Drone Swarm Approach

China’s approach is honestly pretty clever in its simplicity. Instead of trying to build some super-sophisticated jammer that can keep up with Starlink’s frequency hopping, they’re proposing to blanket an entire area with enough electromagnetic noise that it doesn’t matter how smart the satellites are. It’s like trying to have a conversation in a room where 2,000 people are all shouting at once – sure, you might be able to hear snippets here and there, but good luck maintaining a coherent connection.

The drones would fly in a coordinated pattern over Taiwan (in this scenario), each one broadcasting jamming signals across the frequencies Starlink uses. Spread them out properly, keep them airborne in shifts, and you’ve got yourself a persistent electromagnetic ceiling. The simulation suggested they could maintain this kind of coverage with somewhere between 1,800 and 2,500 drones, depending on their altitude and the specific jamming equipment used.

Now, you might be thinking – can’t you just shoot down the drones? Sure, absolutely. But that’s where the numbers game comes in. Taiwan would have to dedicate significant anti-air resources to swatting thousands of relatively cheap drones while also dealing with, you know, every other aspect of a potential conflict. It’s the same basic principle as Russia’s drone strategy in Ukraine: individual units are expendable, but the swarm is the weapon.

Why This Matters (And Why Taiwan Should Care)

Taiwan’s geography makes it particularly vulnerable to this kind of approach. It’s an island – which means that unlike Ukraine, it can’t just run fiber optic cables to friendly neighbors if things go south. If China wanted to cut Taiwan off from the world, severing undersea internet cables would be step one. Those cables are sitting ducks, honestly.

Which is where Starlink comes in. Or came in, I should say.

The Starlink Safety Net

There’s been a lot of discussion in Taiwan about getting Starlink access as a backup communication system. Makes total sense – if your undersea cables get cut (whether by “accident” or otherwise), satellite internet suddenly becomes your lifeline to the outside world. The Ukrainian military has been using it to coordinate operations, share intelligence, and maintain communications even in contested areas. It’s been a genuine game-changer.

But if China can effectively demonstrate that they have a counter to Starlink – even a resource-intensive one – that safety net starts looking pretty threadbare. And this simulation is basically them saying, out loud, “we’ve thought about this and we have a plan.”

“The psychological impact of demonstrating a credible counter-strategy can be just as important as the strategy itself.”

The Economics of Electronic Warfare

Here’s what’s kind of fascinating about this whole thing: the cost-benefit analysis actually seems to work out. Starlink satellites aren’t cheap – each one costs somewhere in the ballpark of $250,000 to $500,000 to build and launch. The entire constellation represents billions of dollars in investment. Meanwhile, a military-grade drone with jamming equipment? You’re probably looking at anywhere from $50,000 to a few hundred thousand, depending on capability and endurance.

But you don’t even need to destroy anything. That’s the elegant part. You just need to make it temporarily useless. And if you’re China, you’ve already got massive drone manufacturing capacity. Scaling up production of a few thousand specialized drones is well within your capabilities – it’s basically a rounding error compared to your defense budget.

The Arms Race Nobody’s Really Talking About

This simulation is part of a broader pattern we’re seeing. As commercial space systems become more integrated into military operations (whether officially or unofficially), they’re becoming targets. Not necessarily for destruction, but for disruption.

SpaceX knows this, obviously. They’ve been continuously upgrading Starlink’s resistance to jamming. There are reports they pushed out updates during the Ukraine conflict that specifically addressed Russian jamming attempts. It’s turning into this weird cat-and-mouse game where the mouse is in orbit and the cat is… well, apparently a swarm of drones now.

What Comes Next

The thing is, this probably isn’t the end state. If China can demonstrate a viable drone-based jamming strategy, then the counter-counter-strategy becomes developing systems that can maintain connectivity even through heavy jamming. Maybe that’s more satellites flying lower with more power. Maybe it’s different frequency bands. Maybe it’s laser communication systems that bypass radio frequencies entirely.

Or maybe – and this is where it gets a bit unsettling – we’re looking at a future where the electromagnetic spectrum over contested areas just becomes completely unusable during conflicts. A digital no-man’s-land where neither side can reliably communicate, navigate, or coordinate.

• Cost per drone: Estimated $50k-$300k depending on capabilities and endurance requirements
• Drones needed: 1,800-2,500 for continuous coverage over Taiwan according to simulation
• Coverage altitude: Likely 10,000-20,000 feet for optimal jamming effectiveness
• Starlink frequencies: Primarily Ku-band and Ka-band, both susceptible to concentrated jamming

The Bigger Picture

What’s really happening here is that China is publicly demonstrating they’ve gamed out scenarios involving American commercial space infrastructure. They’re not just thinking about how to counter the US military – they’re thinking about how to counter the increasingly blurry line between commercial and military space systems.

Starlink wasn’t built as a military system. But it’s being used for military purposes. And once that line gets crossed, it becomes a legitimate target for countermeasures. The simulation is essentially China saying, “we see what you’re doing, and we have options.”

It’s also worth noting that this kind of demonstration serves multiple purposes. Sure, it’s a technical proof of concept. But it’s also a message to Taiwan about the limits of technological solutions to political problems. And it’s a message to the US about the vulnerability of systems we’ve come to rely on.

The question now is whether this remains theoretical or whether we see actual deployment of these kinds of systems. China’s been pretty aggressive about building up its drone capabilities – both for surveillance and potentially for combat roles. Adding electronic warfare variants to the mix wouldn’t be a huge stretch.

For Taiwan, this is one more thing to worry about in an already concerning security environment. For SpaceX, it’s a reminder that being in the satellite business increasingly means being in the electronic warfare business, whether you wanted to be or not. And for the rest of us? It’s a glimpse into how future conflicts might be fought – not just with missiles and troops, but with swarms of drones creating invisible walls in the sky.

The electromagnetic shield isn’t science fiction anymore. Apparently, it’s just an engineering problem. And China thinks they’ve solved it.